Claim: Under @AustralianLabor, inflation is down, debt is down, real wages are growing, unemployment is low, interest rates are falling, and economic growth is picking up.

Brian AJ Newman LLB
Sep 5
3 min read

Economic debates in Australia are often reduced to simple claims, but behind those claims sit complex figures, shifting trends, and stories that affect everyday households. Recently, the Albanese Government has pointed to falling inflation, reduced debt, growing real wages, low unemployment, easing interest rates, and renewed economic growth as proof that the economy is strengthening under its leadership.

While those headline statements are compelling, the real test is whether the data supports them — and whether the improvements are sustainable in the long term. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides the most reliable source for understanding inflation, wages, jobs, debt, and growth. Looking closely at this data helps us go beyond political spin to ask sharper questions: which numbers are improving, which are lagging, and what does this mean for Australian workers, families, and businesses?

The analysis below reviews the government’s claim in light of ABS data and raises important questions about where the economy is heading next.

Claim: Under @AustralianLabor, inflation is down, debt is down, real wages are growing, unemployment is low, interest rates are falling, and economic growth is picking up.

Here’s a refined response with ABS-verified insights and thoughtful questions to unpack the broader economic claim:

What the Data Shows

Inflation

Under the Albanese government, headline inflation has dropped significantly—from a high of 6.1% in mid-2022 to the mid-2% range in late 2024, landing within the RBA’s target band (Wikipedia).
Underlying inflation also hit a three-year low by early 2025, falling to 2.7% for trimmed mean—a noteworthy easing (Australian Labor Party).

Real Wages

ABS data shows real wages have grown for five consecutive quarters under the Labor government (ministers.dewr.gov.au, Treasury Ministers).
The Wage Price Index (WPI) rose by 0.8% in the June 2025 quarter, with a 3.4% annual increase—though this was down from 4.1% a year earlier (News.com.au, Australian Bureau of Statistics).

Unemployment

As of July 2025, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, with record employment levels and a strong participation rate of 67.1% (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Treasury Ministers).
This coincides with low inflation—a sign of balanced economic conditions (Treasury Ministers).

Interest Rates

The RBA has cut interest rates three times in 2025, bringing the cash rate down to 3.6% as of August (Reuters).
But because of strong household spending and resilient job growth, expectations for further cuts (e.g., in September) have been scaled back (News.com.au, Reuters, The Australian).

Economic Growth

Australia’s GDP grew by 0.6% in Q2 2025 (seasonally adjusted), with 1.8% annual growth (Reuters, The Guardian, Australian Bureau of Statistics).
Recovery was largely consumer-led, but business investment remains weak and productivity continues to lag (The Guardian).

Government Debt

While this claim wasn’t addressed directly in recent ABS releases, National Accounts show the Albanese government recorded surplus budgets: a $22.1 b surplus in 2023, another $9.3 b in 2024—though the 2025 budget returned to a deficit (Wikipedia).

Questions to Dig Deeper

Inflation Detail: Are we referring to headline CPI, underlying (trimmed-mean), or both?
Real Wages: Does “real wages are growing” reflect WPI outpacing inflation, and how is this trend moving quarter-to-quarter?
Unemployment: Is the 4.2% figure trend-adjusted (ABS) or a broader underutilisation measure that includes underemployment?
Interest Rates: While the cash rate is lower, how many cuts have occurred? Are there expectations for more cuts?
Growth Sustainability: Is GDP growth driven mainly by consumer spending or complemented by investment and productivity gains?
Debt in Focus: Is the “debt is down” claim about short-term deficits or broader public debt-to-GDP levels? The recent surplus suggests success on one front, but the 2025 budget deficit complicates the picture.

Summary Table

Metric	Data Snapshot
Inflation	Headline and trimmed-mean down to target band (~2–3%)
Real Wages	Positive growth for five quarters; WPI +0.8% qtr, +3.4% annually
Unemployment	4.2% (July 2025), high participation
Interest Rates	3 cuts in 2025, now at 3.6%
Economic Growth	GDP +0.6% q/q, +1.8% annually; consumer-led
Government Debt	Budget surplus in 2023 & 2024; 2025 shows a return to deficit